Daily Outlook – IMF Greece Scare hurts Euro

by Forex Trading HQ on May 27, 2011

in Asia Pacific Forex Report

U.S. Dollar Trading (US) both data releases disappointed with US Q1 GDP unchanged at 1.8% and Weekly Jobless Claims creeping higher to 424k vs. 400k forecast. Stocks dipped but ended higher with a large rally towards the end of the day. In US stocks, DJIA +36 points closing at 12394, S&P +4 points closing at 1320 and NASDAQ +20 points closing at 2746. Looking ahead, G8 Meetings All day. May UoM Sentiment forecast at 72.4 vs. 72.4 previously.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro slumped on talks the IMF was not going to give Greece its June bailout. The market bounced after absorbing the news when most analysts commented it was just a threat to speed up the passing of more austerity measure. EUR/JPY is being whipped around inside the Y114 -116 range. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4066 and a high of 1.4207 before closing the day around 1.4135 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May EU Economic Sentiment forecast at 105.7 vs. 106.2 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY crashed on the back of US data missing expectations finding support in the lower Y81 region. Most crosses bounce however with equities late in the US session. Overall the USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.07 and a high of 82.04 before closing the day around 81.25 in the New York session. UPDATE April CPI at 0.6% vs. -0.1% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) continued outperforming the rest of the market taking advantage of the weakness in the EUR/GBP to push GBP/USD towards 1.6400. GBP/JPY consolidated above Y133. UK Consumer confidence soared in what is regards as ‘royal wedding’ effect last month. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6272 and a high of 1.6410 before closing the day at 1.6385 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May HPI forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2% previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed higher above 1.0600 with support from the improving risk appetite and supportive comments from RBA deputy governor talking up Australian banks. The outlook is improving for the AUD as solid support was found below 1.0500. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 1.0508 and a high of 1.0650 before closing the day at 1.0625 in the New York session.

Oil & Gold (XAU) pulled back below $ 1520 after failed to continue the rally in recent days. Overall trading with a low of USD$ 1514 and high of USD $ 1531 before ending the New York session at USD$ 1520 an ounce. Oil Consolidated the rally above $ 100 a barrel. WTI Oil Closed -$ 1.10 at $ 100.23 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3970

1.4068

1.4265

1.4341

1.4423

USD/JPY

80.64

80.94

81.10

82.23

82.79

GBP/USD

1.6132

1.6268

1.6445

1.6484

1.6500

AUD/USD

1.0443

1.0510

1.0705

1.0717

1.0794

XAU/USD

1504.00

1513

1525

1533

1550

OIL/USD

98.00

100.00

101.00

103.00

105.00

Euro – 1.4265

Initial support at 1.4068 (May 26 low) followed by 1.3970 (May 23 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4341 (38.2% retrace of 1.4940-1.3970) followed by 1.4423 (May 11 high)

Yen – 81.10

Initial support is located at 80.94 (May 18 low) followed by 80.64 (May 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 82.23 (May 19 high) followed by 82.79 (Apr 27 high).

Pound – 1.6440

Initial support at 1.6268 (May 26 low) followed by 1.6132 (May 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6380 (61.8% retrace of 1.6747-1.6058) followed by 1.6500 (Big Figure).

Australian Dollar – 1.0705

Initial support at 1.0510 (May 26 low) followed by the 1.0441 (May 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0657 (May 13 high) followed by 1.0717 (61.8% retrace of 1.1012-1.0441).

Gold – 1525

Initial support at 1513 (May 24 low) followed by 1504 (May 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 1533 (61.8% retrace of 1577.57-1462.45) followed by 1550 (76.4% retrace of 1577.57-1462.45).

Oil – 101.00

Initial support at 100.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 98.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 103.00 (Intraday resistance) followed by 105.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post: