CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 3rd September (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the positive momentum continued overnight with stocks extending Wednesday’s gains and dips being bought on risk appetite. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 472k vs. 475k forecast and US Pending Home Sales increased 5.2% in July. In US stocks, DJIA +50 points closing at 10320, S&P +9 points closing at 1090 and NASDAQ +23 points closing at 2200. Looking ahead, August US Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast at -100k vs. -131k. August Unemployment Rate is forecast at 9.6% vs. 9.5% previously.
The Euro (EUR) the ECB held at 1.0% as widely expected and President Trichet was positive in the press conference afterwards. Q2 GDP was also confirmed at 1.0% allowing the EUR/USD to consolidate above 1.2800. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2775 and a high of 1.2880 before closing at 1.2820. Looking ahead, July Retail Sales are forecast 0.2% vs. 0.0%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was extremely quiet inside a 50 pip range with the pair finding support at Y84.00. The AUD/JPY is supporting grinding higher towards Y77 ahead of the Yen critical US jobs reports tonight. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.98 and a high of 84.58 before closing the day around 84.40 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) was under slight pressure in Europe unable to take advantage of the improvement in risk appetite. August Nationwide House Price Index fell -0.9% m/m and has increased economists worried about a double dip recession. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5348 and a high of 1.5454 before closing the day at 1.5420 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August PMI services are forecast at 52.9 vs. 53.1 previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) the commodity based currency took advantage of moves higher in Oil and stocks to break above 0.9100. July Trade Balance fell unexpectedly to 1.8bn vs. 3.4bn forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9053 and a high of 0.9123 before closing the US session at 0.9100.
Oil & Gold (XAU) range traded around the $ 1250 figure. Overall trading with a low of USD$ 1244 and high of USD $ 1253 before ending the New York session at USD$ 1250 an ounce. Crude Oil jumped on news of an Oil Rig explosion. WTI Oil Closed +$ 1.11 at $ 75.00 a barrel.
| Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.2434 | 1.2588 | 1.2830 | 1.2933 | 1.3000 |
| USD/JPY | 81.85 | 83.60 | 84.35 | 86.38 | 88.12 |
| GBP/USD | 1.5125 | 1.5324 | 1.5425 | 1.5492 | 1.5713 |
| AUD/USD | 0.8634 | 0.8771 | 0.9110 | 0.9117 | 0.9222 |
| XAU/USD | 1210.00 | 1232 | 1250 | 1265 | 1300.00 |
| OIL/USD | 70.00 | 72.50 | 74.80 | 75.00 | 76.00 |
Euro – 1.2830
Initial support at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) followed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3000 (Big figure Resistance)
Yen – 84.35
Initial support is located at 83.60 (August 24 low) followed by 81.85 (May 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 86.38 (August 13 high) followed by 87.15 (38.2% retrace of 92.89-83.60).
Pound – 1.5425
Initial support at 1.5324 (38.2% retrace of 1.4231-1.5999) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5475 (Aug 31 high) followed by 1.5713 (Aug 12 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9110
Initial support at 0.8771 (Aug 25 low) followed by the 0.8634 (July 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9117 (Sept 2 high) followed by 0.9222 (Aug 6 high).
Gold – 1250
Initial support at 1232 (Aug 31 low) followed by 1210 (Aug 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1265 (June 21 high) followed by 1300 (round number).
Oil – 74.80
Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 71.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 76.00 (Intraday Resistance).
{ Comments on this entry are closed }
